A Study to Evaluate Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab Versus Pemetrexed With Cisplatin or Carboplatin for Unresectable Pleural Mesothelioma in Chinese Participants

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-11-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ipilimumabchemotherapytherapyunresectabletumor
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyefficacy andsafety ofthe efficacy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 71 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 800 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 244110 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Nivolumab Combined With Ipilimumab Versus Pemetrexed and Cisplatin or Carboplatin as First Line Therapy in Unresectable Pleural Mesothelioma Patients NCT02899299 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Nintedanib (BIBF 1120) in Mesothelioma NCT01907100 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials terminated
• Autologous Dendritic Cell Vaccination in Mesothelioma NCT02649829 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• BEAT-meso: Bevacizumab and Atezolizumab in Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma NCT03762018 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Mesothelioma Avastin Plus Pemetrexed-cisplatin Study NCT00651456 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.