Erenumab-aooe for the Management of Trigeminal Neuropathic Pain.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-10-27, after 2022-05-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: painopioidneuropathictypereceptor
Phrases that lowered it: participantvisitthis trialthe screeningparticipants -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 17.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 49 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 297 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 5822 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 13 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 297 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 18.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 49 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 35691 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5822 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 17.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- erenumab, erenumab aooe
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Erenumab-aooe for Temporomandibular Disorders Management: TMD Cgrp Antibody RElief (TMD CARE) NCT05162027 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy of Erenumab in Chronic Cluster Headache NCT04970355 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- Investigation of Safety and Efficacy of ABP-450 for Migraine Prevention in Adults NCT04845178 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- A Safety and Efficacy Study to Evaluate AMG 334 in Migraine Prevention NCT02630459 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
- Incobotulinum Toxin for the Treatment of Trigeminal Neuralgia NCT02088632 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.