A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of NDI-034858 in Participants With Active Psoriatic Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 517 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 61 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebo controlledprior tomonths priorevidencechronic
  Phrases that lowered it: participantpsoriasisparticipantsarthritismtx
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of NDI-034858 in Participants With Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis NCT04999839 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• A Study Comparing Zasocitinib (TAK-279) With Deucravacitinib in Adults With Plaque Psoriasis NCT06973291 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Benefit and Safety of GSK2982772 in Moderate to Severe Psoriasis Participants NCT04316585 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• To Compare Pharmacokinetics, Efficacy, and Safety of CT-P17 With Humira in Patients With Moderate to Severe Chronic Plaque Psoriasis NCT05495568 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• The Efficacy and Safety of TLL018 in Moderate-to-severe Plaque Psoriasis NCT05772520 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.