A Phase 1/2a Study of CDK-003 in Patients With Cutaneous T-Cell Lymphoma (CTCL).

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartfailurepatientcancerequal
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipanthealthypharmacokineticsmale
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A First-in-Human Study of CDK-002 (exoSTING) in Subjects With Advanced/Metastatic, Recurrent, Injectable Solid Tumors NCT04592484 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Study of MK-3475 Alone or in Combination With Copanlisib in Relapsed or Refractory NK and T-cell Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma NCT02535247 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Ribociclib + PDR001 in Breast Cancer and Ovarian Cancer NCT03294694 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
• Study of MK-2118 Administered as Intratumoral Injection as Monotherapy and in Combination With Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) or by Subcutaneous Injection in Combination With Pembrolizumab in the Treatment of Adults With Advanced/Metastatic Solid Tumors or Lymphomas (MK-2118-001) NCT03249792 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated
• A Study of TAK-981 in People With Advanced Solid Tumors or Cancers in the Immune System NCT03648372 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.