Comparing Platelet Rich Plasma and Corticosteroid for Military & Civilian Patients With Glenohumeral Osteoarthritis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (53 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-05-08, after 2022-09-26 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-05-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 26 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 26 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 15.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 8 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- platelet rich plasma
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Platelet-rich Plasma Intra-articular Knee Injections for Knee Osteoarthritis NCT01381081 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- The Effect of Platelet-rich Plasma in Patients With Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT01926327 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Biological Response to Platelet-rich Plasma and Corticosteroid Injections NCT05657496 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
- EVALUATION OF AN INNOVATIVE TREATMENT FOR RADIOCARPAL OSTEOARTHRITIS USING INTRA-ARTICULAR INJECTION OF A MIXTURE OF AUTOLOGOUS MICROFAT AND AUTOLOGOUS PLATELET-RICH PLASMA NCT03164122 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Platelet-Rich Plasma Therapy for Shoulder Pain in Persons With Spinal Cord Injury NCT01355549 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.