A Study to Evaluate Lumasiran in Adults With Recurrent Calcium Oxalate Kidney Stone Disease and Elevated Urinary Oxalate Levels
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (192 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-11-01, after 2022-01-27 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebo controlledrandomizationblind placebodiseaseto screening
Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatethe efficacyexcretionthe effect -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 29 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 20 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 19 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 60% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- lumasiran
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Evaluate the Effect of ALLN-177 in Reducing Urinary Oxalate in Patients With Hyperoxaluria and Kidney Stones NCT02503345 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Evaluating ALLN-177 for Reducing Urinary Oxalate Excretion in Calcium Oxalate Kidney Stone Formers With Hyperoxaluria NCT02289755 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
- A Phase 2a Study of LLX-424 in Patients With a History of Kidney Stones NCT06932146 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- Febuxostat Versus Allopurinol or Placebo in Patients With Hyperuricosuria and Calcium Oxalate Stones NCT01077284 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- Lanthanum Carbonate (Fosrenol®) to Reduce Oxalate Excretion in Patients With Secondary Hyperoxaluria and Nephrolithiasis NCT03346369 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.