A Study to Assess the Effect of CC-95251 in Participants With Acute Myeloid Leukemia and Myelodysplastic Syndromes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-07-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiaamlmyeloidmdsacute
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantto evaluateevaluate theopen label
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 36.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 70 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 800 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9187 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of CC-96191 in Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT04789655 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• A Study of CC-90002 in Subjects With Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) and High-risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT02641002 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate Safety and Tolerability of CC-91633 (BMS-986397) in Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia or Relapsed or Refractory Higher-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes NCT04951778 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Assess Safety and Tolerability of CC-486 (ONUREG®, Oral Azacitidine) in Combination Therapy in Participants With Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) NCT04887857 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Adverse Events and Movement of Lemzoparlimab in Body When Used Intravenously (IV) With Azacitidine Subcutaneously or IV and Venetoclax Orally in Participants With Acute Myeloid Leukemia and With Azacitidine With or Without Venetoclax in Participants With Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT04912063 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.