Efficacy Study of COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine in Regions With SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (81 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-04-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartcoronaryarterychronicdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationvaccinesparticipantsparticipant
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety, and Immunogenicity of mRNA-1273 Vaccine in Adults Aged 18 Years and Older to Prevent COVID-19 NCT04470427 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• Safety and Immunogenicity of Omicron Variant-Matched Vaccine Booster in Adults NCT05383560 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Study of mRNA Vaccine Formulation Against COVID-19 in Healthy Adults 18 Years of Age and Older NCT04798027 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of the mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines in Healthy Children Between 6 Months to Less Than 6 Years of Age NCT05436834 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Study of GRT-R910 COVID-19 Boost Vaccine in Healthy Volunteers NCT05148962 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.