Neoadjuvant HAIC of TACE Plus Donafenib in BCLC B Stage HCC: a Multi-center Randomized Controlled Trial.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (131 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-10-31, after 2021-12-24 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: stagecarcinomacellchronic kidneykidney disease
Phrases that lowered it: patients whohepaticupperlesionspatients with -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 37 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 173281 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 16297 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 50 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 37 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 5 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 173281 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 16297 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 91.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 15.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- donafenib, fluorouracil, glucosamine, leucovorin, oxaliplatin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Sorafenib and Transarterial Chemoembolization (TACE) to Treat Hepatocellular Carcinoma NCT00844883 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- Sorafenib Chemoembolization Evaluation Controlled Trial NCT01906216 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- A Single Center Study of Donafenib Combined With PD-1 + TACE in the First-line Treatment of aHCC NCT05262959 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Phase 2 Study of TAC-101 Combined With Transcatheter Arterial Chemoembolization (TACE) Versus TACE Alone in Japanese Patients With Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma NCT00667628 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
- T-ACE Oil by TAE/TACE in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma NCT05435014 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.