Open-Label Proof of Concept Study of VP-315 in Basal Cell Carcinoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-04-15, after 2022-02-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-04-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerbiopsycellevidence ofeligible
Phrases that lowered it: visitsubjectsthe screeningtopicalpharmacokinetics -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 11 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 11 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 8 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 5 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Clinical Trial of Patidegib Gel 2%, 4%, and Vehicle Applied Once or Twice Daily to Decrease the GLI1 Biomarker in Sporadic Nodular Basal Cell Carcinomas NCT02828111 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Study of Patidegib Topical Gel, 2%, for the Reduction of Disease Burden of Persistently Developing Basal Cell Carcinomas (BCCs) in Subjects With Basal Cell Nevus Syndrome (Gorlin Syndrome) NCT03703310 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- Open Label, Dose Escalation Study for the Safety and Efficacy of STP705 in Adult Patients With Basal Cell Carcinoma NCT04669808 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Investigation of the Safety and Tolerability of BSCT (Anti-nf-P2X7) 10% Ointment NCT02587819 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Dose-Ranging Clinical Trial of Topical Creams Containing API 31510 for the Treatment of Superficial Basal Cell Carcinoma NCT00604890 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.