A Placebo Controlled Trial of Acebilustat (CTX 4430) for the Treatment of Human Upper Extremity Lymphedema
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-12-01, after 2022-07-27 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebochronic kidneykidney diseaseacutescreening
Phrases that lowered it: participantcanceruppervaccinetrial -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 852 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 177 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 852 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 177 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Ubenimex in Adult Patients With Lymphedema of The Lower Limb (ULTRA) NCT02700529 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- LYT-100 in Patients With BCRL NCT04243837 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
- A Study of Lanadelumab in Teenagers and Adults to Prevent Acute Attacks of Non-histaminergic Angioedema With Normal C1-Inhibitor (C1-INH) NCT04206605 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of CBL-514 Injection for Reducing Subcutaneous Fat (Stage 2) NCT04897412 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Clinical Study With Lymfactin® in the Treatment of Patients With Secondary Lymphedema (AdeLE) NCT03658967 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.