A Second Study of Cytisinicline for Smoking Cessation in Adult Smokers
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-03-21, after 2022-01-20 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectrandomizationbreastpriorwomen
Phrases that lowered it: evaluateparticipantand safetyefficacy andsafety of -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 57.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 24 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 7 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 57.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cytisine, cytisinicline
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Cytisinicline for Smoking Cessation in Adult Smokers NCT04576949 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Trial of Cytisine in Adult Smokers NCT03709823 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- A Study of Cytisinicline for Vaping Cessation in Adult Smokers NCT05431387 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- A Single Dose-escalation Study of Cytisine in Adult Smokers NCT03848208 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Safety Study of Cytisinicline in Adult Combustible and/or E-cigarette Smokers NCT06435221 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.