The Safety and Efficacy of Psilocybin in Patients With Treatment-resistant Depression and Chronic Suicidal Ideation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-05-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: failurediagnosistreatmentactivechronic
  Phrases that lowered it: disordersafetyparticipantsadultalcohol
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 6 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The Safety and Efficacy Of Psilocybin as an Adjunctive Therapy in Participants With Treatment Resistant Depression NCT04739865 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Psilocybin in Co-occuring Major Depressive Disorder and Borderline Personality Disorder NCT05399498 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• The Safety and Efficacy of Psilocybin in Participants With Treatment Resistant Depression NCT03775200 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study of Psilocybin for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) NCT03866174 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• A Study of Seltorexant as Adjunctive Therapy to Antidepressants in Adult and Elderly Participants With Major Depressive Disorder With Insomnia Symptoms Who Have Responded Inadequately to Antidepressant and Long-term Safety Extension Treatment With Seltorexant NCT04533529 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.