A Clinical Trial to Determine the Long-term Safety and Tolerability of an Investigational Drug in People With Major Depressive Episode Associated With Bipolar I Disorder (Bipolar I Depression).
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2023-11-17, after 2022-03-17 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: long termmsecintervalsubjectsassociated
Phrases that lowered it: dayvisitstudy willopenlabel -
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 153 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 153 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 6 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Clinical Study of an Investigational Drug for the Treatment of Major Depressive Episode Associated With Bipolar I Disorder. NCT05169710 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
- A Clinical Study to Evaluate the Long-term Safety and Tolerability of an Investigational Drug in People With Schizophrenia NCT04109950 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
- An Extension Study of Safety and Tolerability of SEP-363856 in Adult Subjects With Schizophrenia NCT02970929 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- An Extension Study to a Clinical Study That Will Continue to Evaluate the Effectiveness and Safety of SEP-363856 in People With Schizophrenia That Switch to SEP-363856 From Their From Their Current Antipsychotic Medication NCT05741528 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- A Trial of the Safety and Efficacy of SEP-363856 in the Treatment of Adults With Major Depressive Disorder NCT05593029 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.