Effectiveness and Safety of Methadone Versus Placebo for the Control of Neuropathic Pain in Different Etiologies

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painplacebofailuresyndromechronic
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyinteractiondisordersafety ofdrugs
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 38.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 74 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 426 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 32096 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy & Safety Study of Nonracemic Methadone for the Relief of Chronic Peripheral Neuropathic Pain NCT01429181 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Methadone Hydrochloride as First-Line Therapy in Treating Patients With Chronic Neuropathic Cancer Pain NCT00930332 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• Increased Sensitivity to Pain Caused by Opioids in People Who Have Abused Prescription Opioids NCT01821430 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of the Efficacy and Safety of Two Methadone Titration Methods for the Treatment of Cancer-related Pain With Inadequate Pain Relief or Intolerable Side Effects When Treated With Level 3 Opioids. NCT01793480 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Morphine Versus Methadone As First Line Strong Opioid for Cancer Pain NCT00634010 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.