A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of BMS-986403 in Participants With Relapsed and/or Refractory Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia or Small Lymphocytic Lymphoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-05-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiabmslymphocyticclllymphoma
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsefficacyopen labelevaluate theto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 77 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 176902 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 835 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 18491 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 2 Open-Label Study of the Efficacy and Safety of ABT-199 (GDC-0199) in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) Subjects With Relapse or Refractory to B-Cell Receptor Signaling Pathway Inhibitor Therapy NCT02141282 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of Weekly Intravenous (IV) Doses of BMS-906024 in Subjects With Acute T-cell Lymphoblastic Leukemia or T-cell Lymphoblastic Lymphoma NCT01363817 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Preliminary Efficacy Study of CC-99282 in Combination With Obinutuzumab in Subjects With Relapsed or Refractory Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia/Small Lymphocytic Lymphoma NCT04434196 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Study of BMS-863233 in Patients With Hematologic Cancer NCT00838890 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated
• First in Human Study to Determine the Safety, Tolerability and Preliminary Efficacy of an Anti-CXCR4 Antibody in Subjects With Acute Myelogenous Leukemia and Selected B-cell Cancers NCT01120457 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.