Trial to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of an Investigational Herpes Zoster Vaccine (Z-1018) Compared to Shingrix® in Healthy Adult Volunteers
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (776 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-10-20, after 2022-01-10 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: chemotherapycelltreatingpriorcancer
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinehealthyhistoryvolunteersvaccination -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 26.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 69 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 19 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 26.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Immunogenicity Study of GlaxoSmithKline's Herpes Zoster Subunit Vaccine (HZ/su) When Given on a Two-dose Schedule to Adults at Least 50 Years of Age (YOA) With a Prior Episode of Herpes Zoster NCT04091451 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety and Immunogenicity of GSK Biologicals' Herpes Zoster (HZ) Vaccine GSK1437173A in Adults Aged 50 Years and Older NCT01165177 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Cross-vaccination Study of GSK Biologicals' Herpes Zoster Subunit (HZ/su) Vaccine (GSK 1437173A) in Subjects Who Previously Received Placebo in ZOSTER-006 (NCT01165177) and ZOSTER-022 (NCT01165229) Studies. NCT02690207 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Immunogenicity and Safety of GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Biologicals' Herpes Zoster Subunit (HZ/su) Vaccine GSK1437173A in Adults With a Prior Episode of Herpes Zoster NCT01827839 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- A Study on the Immune Response and Safety of a Vaccine Against Herpes Zoster in Adults Aged 50 Years and Older in India NCT05219253 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.