An Umbrella Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Multiple Treatment Combinations in Patients With Gastric or Gastroesophageal Junction Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticstageher2advancedlocally
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantopenlabeland safety
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 122 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1225 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 142308 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Multiple Immunotherapy-Based Treatment Combinations in Patients With Locally Advanced Unresectable or Metastatic Gastric or Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer (G/GEJ) or Esophageal Cancer (Morpheus-Gastric and Esophageal Cancer) NCT03281369 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials terminated
• Clinical Study of Regorafenib and Nivolumab Plus Chemotherapy NCT05394740 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Cetuximab in Combination With S-1 and Cisplatin in Gastric Cancer NCT01388790 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Trial of a New Combination Treatment, Domvanalimab and Zimberelimab, Plus Chemotherapy, for People With an Upper Gastrointestinal Tract Cancer That Cannot be Removed With Surgery That Has Spread to Other Parts of the Body NCT05568095 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• A Study of Amivantamab in Participants With Previously Treated Advanced or Metastatic Gastric or Esophageal Cancer NCT04945733 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.