A Study of Itolizumab in Combination With Corticosteroids for the First-Line Treatment of Acute Graft Versus Host Disease (EQUATOR)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-05-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: donorcarcinomacanceracutegrade
  Phrases that lowered it: daykgplaceboand safetymg
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of IBI377 in Combination With Corticosteroids for the Treatment of First-Line Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease NCT04220632 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
• Safety of Itacitinib in Combination With Corticosteroids for Treatment of Steroid-Naive Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease in Japanese Subjects NCT03497273 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• GRAVITAS-301: A Study of Itacitinib or Placebo in Combination With Corticosteroids for Treatment of Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease NCT03139604 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Decidua Stroma Cells for Steroid Resistent Acute Graft-versus-host Disease After Allo-HSCT NCT04118556 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy of Itacitinib in Combination With Corticosteroids for Treatment of Graft-Versus-Host Disease in Pediatric Subjects NCT03721965 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.