Efficacy and Safety of Flos Gossypii Flavonoids Tablet in the Treatment of Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-11-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects withmriphase iisubjectbrain
  Phrases that lowered it: blood pressurediseasesand safetyclinicalsafety of
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 27 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 35 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Wei Li Bai Capsules in the Treatment of Alzheimer's Disease NCT05670912 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials terminated
• The Clinical Trial of Chinese Herbal Medicine (SaiLuoTong) Capsule NCT03789760 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• An Efficacy and Safety Study of Sodium Oligo-mannurarate (GV-971) Capsule for the Treatment of Alzheimer's Disease NCT02293915 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Trial of Florbetapir (18F) Positron Emission Tomography (PET) Imaging in Japan of Healthy Volunteers, Patients With Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) and Patients With Alzheimer's Disease (AD) NCT01662882 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Clinical Study on the Safety and Pharmacokinetics of [18F]Florbetazine Injection NCT06593626 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.