TMB-365 and TMB-380 in Suppressed HIV-1 Infected Individuals

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-11-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapychemotherapycombinationfailurecell
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsscreeningpharmacokineticshiv infectedhiv rna
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 6 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dose Escalation Safety Study of TMB-365 in HIV-1 Infected Participants NCT04027387 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, and Effect of a Human Monoclonal Antibody (VRC01) on Markers of HIV Persistence in HIV-Infected Adults Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) NCT02411539 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• 10E8.4/iMab Bispecific Antibody in HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected Adults NCT03875209 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• VRC 601: A Phase I, Open-Label, Dose-Escalation Study of the Safety and Pharmacokinetics of a Human Monoclonal Antibody, VRC HIVMAB060-00-AB (VRC01), With Broad HIV-1 Neutralizing Activity, Administered Intravenously or Subcutaneously to HIV-Infected... NCT01950325 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Combination Therapy With 3BNC117 and 10-1074 in HIV-Infected Individuals NCT03571204 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.