A Phase 2b, Study of Linsitinib in Subjects With Active, Moderate to Severe Thyroid Eye Disease (TED)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (370 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: eyeassociatedof screeningonsetdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: participantmoderateefficacyevaluate theto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 40% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of LASN01 in Patients With Thyroid Eye Disease NCT06226545 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• An Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability Study of Veligrotug (VRDN-001), in Participants With Chronic Thyroid Eye Disease (TED) NCT06021054 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Lonigutamab in Subjects With Thyroid Eye Disease (TED) NCT05683496 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Secukinumab 300 mg in Patients With Thyroid Eye Disease (TED) NCT04737330 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
• Teprotumumab (RV 001) Treatment in Patients With Active Thyroid Eye Disease NCT01868997 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.