Adipose-tissue-derived Total-Stromal-cells (TOST) Therapy in Knee Osteoarthritis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (53 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-12-31, after 2018-01-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellsiicelltissuepatients
Phrases that lowered it: kneeosteoarthritissinglearthritisphysical -
Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 15 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 18 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- ADSC Injections for Pain Management of Osteoarthritis in the Human Knee Joint NCT02357485 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of Clinical Efficacy of Autologous Adipose Tissue Derived ADSCSs in Treatment of Osteoarthritis (OA) NCT05484856 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- A Study Evaluating the Efficacy of a Single Injection Autologous Adipose Derived Mesenchymal Stromal Cells in Patients With Knee Osteoarthritis NCT02838069 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- ADIPOA - Clinical Study NCT01585857 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Autologous Adipose-Derived Stromal Vascular Fraction Cells for Osteoarthritis Treatment NCT02967874 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.