High-Dose Moderna mRNA-1273 Booster Study for Lung Transplant Recipients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (283 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2023-02-27, after 2022-03-10 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-02-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: hourstransplantationadministrationtransplantlung
Phrases that lowered it: vaccineparticipantsparticipantvaccinesblood pressure -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 108 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 496 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 496 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 108 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2472 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2073 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 60.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 3.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- covid19 vaccine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Evaluate Safety and Immunogenicity of mRNA-1273 Vaccine to Prevent COVID-19 in Adult Organ Transplant Recipients and in Healthy Adult Participants NCT04860297 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- COVID Protection After Transplant - Sanofi GSK (CPAT-SG) Study NCT05518487 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- COVID Protection After Transplant-Immunosuppression Reduction NCT05077254 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety, and Immunogenicity of mRNA-1273 Vaccine in Adults Aged 18 Years and Older to Prevent COVID-19 NCT04470427 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of an (Omicron Subvariant) COVID-19 Vaccine Booster Dose in Previously Vaccinated Participants and Unvaccinated Participants. NCT05975060 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.