A Pragmatic Approach to Lower Diabetes Risk After Gestational Diabetes
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (159 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-04-18, after 2022-06-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-04-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: hearthourcarefailuregestational
Phrases that lowered it: diabetesmetforminconductedmellitusdiagnosed -
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 67.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 20 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 28166 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 364377 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 90 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 22.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 20 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 364377 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 28166 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 67.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, urogenital, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- metformin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Medical Optimization of Management of Type 2 Diabetes Complicating Pregnancy (MOMPOD) NCT02932475 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials terminated
- Metformin in Women With Type 2 Diabetes in Pregnancy Trial NCT01353391 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Effectiveness of Metformin Compared to Insulin in Pregnant Women With Mild Preexisting or Early Gestational Diabetes NCT00835861 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
- Comparison of Insulin Alone to Insulin With Metformin to Treat Gestational Diabetes Mellitus NCT03651531 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials terminated
- Maternal Weight Gain in Gestational Diabetes Controlled by Metformin Versus Insulin NCT03841591 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.