Monthly Injectable BUP for MA Use Disorder (MURB) Trial

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationsafetime ofnegativeprovide
  Phrases that lowered it: daymildperiodmoderatesmoking
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 61.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 113174 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Proof of Concept and Dose-ranging Study of INDV-2000 in Individuals With Moderate to Severe Opioid Use Disorder NCT06384157 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Phase Ib/2a Drug-drug Interaction Study of a Combination of 45mg Dextromethorphan With 105 mg Bupropion NCT05976646 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial of CAM2038, Long-acting Subcutaneous Buprenorphine Injections for Treatment of Patients With Opioid Dependence NCT02651584 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Long-Term Safety Study of Buprenorphine (CAM2038) in Adult Outpatients With Opioid Use Disorder NCT02672111 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Buprenorphine-Fentanyl Interaction Study NCT03747341 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.