The ASCEND Study: Evaluating TMB-001 in the Treatment of RXLI or ARCI Ichthyosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-09-23, after 2022-06-21 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-09-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subject hassubject isthe subjectleftcancer
Phrases that lowered it: topicalvehicleperiodphysicalinvestigator -
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 168 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 6 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 6 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 168 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 15 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Safety, Efficacy and Systemic Exposure Study of CD5789 Cream in Adults and Adolescents With Lamellar Ichthyosis NCT03738800 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
- A Six Week Topical Cream Study for Subjects With Ichthyosis Vulgaris NCT03173547 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of CGB-500, 1% Tofacitinib Versus an Active Comparator for Atopic Dermatitis NCT06923228 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Phase 2b Safety and Efficacy Study of CGB-500 Topical Ointment With 0.5% and 1% Tofacitnib for Treatment of Atopic Dermatitis NCT06810050 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- A Dose Ranging Placebo-Controlled Double-Blind Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Tezepelumab in Atopic Dermatitis NCT03809663 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.