XmAb20717 in Advanced Biliary Tract Cancers
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-07-13, after 2022-04-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-07-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: radiationbrainmetastasesbiopsychemotherapy
Phrases that lowered it: drugcd4arthivmale -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 40 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 146 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 146 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 21.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 40 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of XmAb23104 in People With Sarcoma NCT05879185 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
- APX005M With Nivolumab and Cabiralizumab in Advanced Melanoma, Non-small Cell Lung Cancer or Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT03502330 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- BDB001-102: Open Label Dose Escalation of BDB001 in Combination w Atezolizumab NCT04196530 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Apatinib Plus Camrelizumab in Patients With Previously Treated Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer NCT04642664 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab and GM-CSF in Biliary Cancer NCT02703714 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.