CD40L Antagonism in Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (785 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-07-28, after 2023-07-25 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-07-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: celltherapycarcinomatreatedtreatment with
Phrases that lowered it: participantvaccinationscreeninginvestigatorhistory -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 1439 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 76 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1439 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 76 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Andecaliximab as Add-On Therapy to a Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitor and Methotrexate Regimen in Adults With Moderately to Severely Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT02862574 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy, Pharmacokinetics, and Safety of BI 695500 in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01682512 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
- Seronegative Oligoarthritis of the Knee Study (SOKS) NCT01216631 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials terminated
- Recombinant Anti-human IL-17A/F Humanized Monoclonal Antibody Injection in the Treatment of Moderate-to-Severe Active AS NCT07498634 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
- A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of TACI-antibody Fusion Protein Injection (RC18) in Subjects With Inadequate Response to TNF-α Antagonists Due to Treat Moderate and Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT02882087 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.