A Study of Telitacicept for the Treatment of Moderately to Severely Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (REMESLE-1)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: slestagelupusrandomizationprior
  Phrases that lowered it: to evaluateand safetyevaluate theefficacy andsafety of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 12 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Rontalizumab in Patients With Moderately to Severely Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT00962832 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of Elsubrutinib and Upadacitinib Given Alone or in Combination in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) NCT03978520 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• ILT-101 in Patients With Active Moderate to Severe Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) NCT02955615 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• A IMMA Master Protocol: A Study of LY3361237 in Participants With at Least Moderately Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT05123586 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Pharmacokinetics (PK), and Pharmacodynamics (PD) of TAK-079 in Combination With Standard Background Therapy in Participants With Moderate to Severe Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) NCT03724916 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.