A Study of Seltorexant in Participants With Probable Alzheimer's Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-11-10, after 2022-05-19 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: alzheimerdementiaadscorepain
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsscreeningbodyefficacy -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor's past trials: 520 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 123 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 55 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 85 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 520 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 123 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy and Safety Study of ELND005 as a Treatment for Agitation and Aggression in Alzheimer's Disease NCT01735630 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- Aripiprazole for the Treatment of Patients With Agitation Associated With Dementia of the Alzheimer's Type NCT02168920 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of AVP-786 for the Treatment of Agitation in Patients With Dementia of the Alzheimer's Type NCT02442765 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of AVP-786 for the Treatment of Agitation in Participants With Dementia of the Alzheimer's Type NCT02442778 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- Treatment for Aggression and Agitation in Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT00843518 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.