Allogeneic Platelet Lysate Eye Drops for the Treatment of Severe Chronic Ocular Graft-versus-host Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (143 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-11-29, after 2021-04-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-11-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellchronictherapyallogeneicpatients
Phrases that lowered it: ocularsafety ofand safetyefficacy andindex -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 13 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 23.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 15 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- respiratory, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Prevention of Ocular Graft-Versus-Host Disease With Topical Cyclosporine in Recipients of Allogeneic HSCT NCT02144025 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
- A Randomized, Controlled, Double-Masked, Clinical Trial of Autologous Serum Eye Drops for Severe Ocular Chronic Graft-versus-Host Disease (GVHD) in Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant (HSCT) Patients NCT01972438 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
- Ocular Surface Syndrome Post-lasik, Outcomes of Treatment With Platelet Rich Plasma NCT03322917 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy Study of R932348 Ophthalmic Solution in Chronic Ocular Graft Versus Host Disease Patients(DROPS-2) NCT02040623 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Bandage Lenses in Treating Patients With Ocular Graft-Versus-Host Disease NCT01616056 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.