Non-inferiority Trial on Treatments in Early COVID-19

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (313 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painsubject30onsetrandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsprogressionmonoclonalbreastefficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 6 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 87.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 4463 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Non-inferiority Trial on Monoclonal Antibodies in COVID-19 NCT05205759 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
• Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial 2 (ACTT-2) NCT04401579 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of SIM0417 Orally Co-Administered With Ritonavir in Symptomatic Adult Participants With Mild to Moderate COVID-19 NCT05506176 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare S-217622 With Placebo in Non-Hospitalized Participants With COVID-19 NCT05305547 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• COVID-19 Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of REGN14256+Imdevimab for the Treatment of COVID-19 Adult and Adolescent Patients Without Risk Factors for Progression to Severe Disease NCT05081388 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.