Dose-ranging, PK, Safety, Efficacy Study of Osanetant in Patients With Moderate/Severe VMS Associated With Menopause

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationplacebobraintreatment ofmonths
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate thepharmacokineticsto evaluatemoderatedrug
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Effects of RCN3028 on Moderate to Severe Vasomotor Symptoms in Women NCT02100540 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Study of Erenumab (AMG 334) in Women With Hot Flashes NCT01890109 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Evaluate RCN3028 in Treatment of Drug-Induced VMS in Breast Cancer NCT06161792 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of the Pharmacokinetics and Safety of BAY3427080 (NT-814) in Post-Menopausal Women With Vasomotor Symptoms NCT02865538 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of AR08 for the Treatment of Vasomotor Symptoms (VMS) NCT02049164 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.