MAGnesium Effect With ANtiosteoporotic Drugs

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (220 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientfailurebonetherapyreceiving
  Phrases that lowered it: to participateagedclinical trialtrial toosteoporosis
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 79 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 186 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Six-month Phase 2 Study of Oral hPTH(1-34) (EBP05) in Postmenopausal Women With Low Bone Mass NCT04003467 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of HLX14 vs. Denosumab Prolia® in Postmenopausal Women With Osteoporosis at High Risk of Fracture NCT05352516 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• MK-5442 in the Treatment of Osteoporosis in Postmenopausal Women Previously Treated With an Oral Bisphosphonate (MK-5442-012) NCT00996801 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Denosumab and Ibandronate in Postmenopausal Women Sub-Optimally Treated With Daily or Weekly Bisphosphonates NCT00936897 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating Changes In Bone Mineral Density (BMD), And Safety Of Rhbmp-2/CPM In Subjects With Decreased BMD NCT00752557 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.