Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound for the Prediction of Bile Duct Cancer Response to Radioembolization Treatment

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 28% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancersmallpatients withtumorradiotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: pulmonaryfemaleresponse tohypersensitivityvolume
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 29.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 47 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 257 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3261 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Perflutren Protein-Type A Microspheres and Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound in Improving Response to Radioembolization Therapy in Patients With Liver Cancer NCT03199274 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound in Predicting Treatment Response in Patients With Liver Cancer Receiving Transarterial Chemoembolization With Drug Eluting Beads NCT03045497 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Contrast-enhanced Ultrasound Evaluation of Chemoembolization NCT02764801 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Ultrasound-enhanced Delivery of Chemotherapy to Patients With Liver Metastasis From Breast- and Colorectal Cancer NCT03477019 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Ultrasound-enhanced Uptake of Chemotherapy in Patients With Inoperable Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma NCT04146441 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.