A Study of Nivolumab-relatlimab Fixed-dose Combination Versus Regorafenib or TAS-102 in Participants With Later-lines of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-07-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bmsmetastaticdiseasecancercolorectal
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsopen labelevaluaterandomized openlabel study
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 72 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 816 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 80.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Nivolumab and Relatlimab in Patients With Microsatellite Stable (MSS) Advanced Colorectal Cancer NCT03642067 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Study on the Effectiveness and Safety of the Combination of the Two Drugs Regorafenib and Nivolumab in Patients With Colorectal Cancer (Cancer of the Colon or Rectum Classified as Proficient Mismatch Repair and Microsatellite Stable) NCT04126733 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• An Investigational Immuno-therapy Study Of Nivolumab In Combination With Trametinib With Or Without Ipilimumab In Participants With Previously Treated Cancer of the Colon or Rectum That Has Spread NCT03377361 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating TAS-102 Plus Nivolumab in Patients With MSS CRC NCT02860546 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) as Monotherapy in Participants With Previously-Treated Locally Advanced Unresectable or Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (MK-3475-164/KEYNOTE-164) NCT02460198 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.