Individualizing Corticosteroid Use in Pneumonia
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-04-29, after 2024-11-06 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-04-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: caredose ofthis studydosingpotential
Phrases that lowered it: patientspatientabsoluterightside effects -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 1549 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 309303 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 84.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 246 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1549 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 246 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 309303 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 24453 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 84.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- dexamethasone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Steroid Dosing by bioMARker Guided Titration in Critically Ill Patients With Pneumonia NCT03852537 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
- Methylprednisolone vs. Dexamethasone in COVID-19 Pneumonia (MEDEAS RCT) NCT04636671 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Extended Steroid in Use in Community Acquired Pneumonia (CAP)(e) NCT01283009 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
- Randomized Open Investigation Determining Steroid Dose NCT04834375 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- Community-Acquired Pneumonia : Evaluation of Corticosteroids NCT02517489 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.