Gemeprost Versus Dinoprostone in First Trimester Miscarriages
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (130 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-10-28, after 2022-11-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: pregnancynegativetrimestersepticcontrolled
Phrases that lowered it: anticoagulationcoagulopathycomparisonunstablemedical management -
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 50 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 27 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 9 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 986 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 82 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 88.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- dinoprostone, gemeprost
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Comparison of Vaginal Versus Sublingual Misoprostol in the Treatment of First Trimester Missed Miscarriage NCT04604366 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Estradiol Pretreatment With Misoprostol in Second Trimester Miscarriage NCT03479879 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Medical Abortion With Single Daily Dose of Misoprostol NCT03487354 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Sublingual Versus Vaginal Misoprostol In Medical Treatment of First Trimestric Missed Miscarriage NCT02686840 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Misoprostol for Second Trimester Termination of Pregnancy NCT02048098 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.