Efficacy of VTP-300 in Chronic Hepatitis B Infection

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronicliverwithin monthspriormetastatic
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccineparticipantreceiptdaysafety
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 40% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• First-In-Human Study of ChAdOx1-HBV & MVA-HBV Vaccines (VTP-300) for Chronic HBV NCT04778904 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• First in Human Study of ChAdOx1-HBV in Healthy Participants and Participants With Chronic hepB Infection NCT04297917 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Safety, Efficacy, Immunogenicity Study of GSK Biologicals' HBV Viral Vector and Adjuvanted Proteins Vaccine (GSK3528869A) in Adult Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B Infection NCT03866187 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
• A Study on the Safety, Efficacy and Immune Response Following Sequential Treatment With an Anti-sense Oligonucleotide Against Chronic Hepatitis B (CHB) and Chronic Hepatitis B Targeted Immunotherapy (CHB-TI) in CHB Patients Receiving Nucleos(t)Ide Analogue (NA) Therapy NCT05276297 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of RO7062931in Healthy Volunteers and Subjects With Chronic Hepatitis B NCT03038113 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.