A Study to Evaluate RIST4721 in Hidradenitis Suppurativa (HS)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects within subjectschronicplacebo controlledcriteria diagnosis
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyevaluate theefficacy andto evaluatesafety of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Global Study Comparing Risankizumab to Placebo in Adult Participants With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT03926169 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• To Assess the Efficacy and Safety of INCB054707 in Participants With Hidradenitis Suppurativa NCT04476043 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• ATI-450 vs Placebo in Participants With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa (HS) NCT05216224 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test the Efficacy, Safety and Pharmacokinetics of Bimekizumab in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa. NCT03248531 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Study of Efficacy and Safety of Two Secukinumab Dose Regimens in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa (HS) NCT03713632 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.