Antiplaque Efficacy of Two Novel Commercially Available Herbal Toothpastes.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (340 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-12-20, after 2021-09-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: plaqueeffectivediseaseexperimentalresearch
Phrases that lowered it: herbalhealthyperiodsubjectsefficacy -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- diagnostic (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 901 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 114 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 74.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- eucalyptus oil
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Clinical Evaluation of a Mouthwash Containing Malva Sylvestris Extract. NCT05138484 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- The Effect of Mouthrinses Containing Bamboo Salt, Magnolia Bark and Centella Asiatica on Reducing Plaque and Gingivitis NCT03047798 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of a Naturally-derived Mouthrinse for Gingival Inflammation NCT00885599 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Clinical Study to Evaluate the Treatment of Gingivitis of Two Toothpastes NCT00762515 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- A Comparison of Mouth Rinse Containing Alcohol-free Chlorhexidine With a Cetylpyridinium Chloride in Periodontal Diseases NCT02756377 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.