A Study to Assess the Mass Balance Recovery, Metabolite Profile and Metabolite Identification of [14C]AZD9833

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-06-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerradiationventricularriskdefined
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyadministrationcaffeinedrugssingle
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1722 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 207 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Rel Bioavailability, Food Effect and Absolute Bioavailability on the Pharmacokinetics of AZD9833 NCT04546347 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• An ADME Study of [14C]AZD0780 in Healthy Male Subjects NCT05817461 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating the Pharmacokinetic and Mass Balance of Single Dose [14C] AZD5718 in Volunteers NCT03948451 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Mass Balance Recovery, Pharmacokinetics, Metabolite Profile and Metabolite Identification of [14C]AZD4831 NCT04407091 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• AZD4635 Relative Bioavailability Study NCT03710434 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.