Study of the Efficacy and Safety of AMT-101 in Combination With Adalimumab in Subjects With Ulcerative Colitis (MARKET)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: colitisabilityulcerativeplacebo controlledconcurrent
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsubjectssafety ofthe efficacy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 57.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• SAD/MAD Study in Healthy Subjects and Adults With UC to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, PK, PD of AMT-101 NCT04224857 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Apremilast to Treat Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT02289417 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Abrilumab (AMG 181) in Adults With Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis NCT01694485 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of AMG 181 in Healthy Subjects and Subjects With Mild to Moderate Ulcerative Colitis NCT01164904 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Pharmacokinetics Study of HE3286 in Patients With Active, Mild-to-Moderate Ulcerative Colitis NCT00628433 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.