A Phase 1 Dose-escalation Study of UGN-301 in Patients With Recurrent Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (NMIBC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellrecurrentcancercarcinomaadequate
  Phrases that lowered it: weeks beforefirst doseperioddruglight
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 41676 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• ADSTILADRIN (=INSTILADRIN) in Patients With High-Grade, Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) Unresponsive Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (NMIBC) NCT02773849 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Proliposomal Intravesical Paclitaxel for Treatment of Low-Grade, Stage Ta, Non Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT03081858 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Intravesical Photodynamic Therapy (PDT) in BCG Refractory High-Risk Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (NMIBC) Patients NCT03053635 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Evaluation of EN3348 (Mycobacterial Cell Wall-DNA Complex [MCC]) as Compared With Mitomycin C in the Intravesical Treatment of Subjects With BCG Recurrent/Refractory Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT01200992 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Apaziquone vs. Placebo in Patients With Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (NMIBC) NCT01469221 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.