Efficacy and Safety of Secukinumab in Patients With New Onset of Giant Cell Arteritis Who Are in Clinical Remission

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-02-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: evidencearteryischemicischemiadisease
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyparticipantparticipantsefficacy andsafety of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 36.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1478 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 168 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 114865 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase III Study of Efficacy and Safety of Secukinumab Versus Placebo, in Combination With Glucocorticoid Taper Regimen, in Patients With Giant Cell Arteritis (GCA) NCT04930094 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• A Placebo-controlled Phase 2 Trial to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of Secukinumab in Giant Cell Arteritis NCT03765788 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• An Efficacy and Safety Study of Tocilizumab (RoActemra/Actemra) in Participants With Giant Cell Arteritis (GCA) NCT01791153 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Efficacy and Safety of Sarilumab in Patients With GCA NCT03600805 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate Guselkumab for the Treatment of Participants With New-onset or Relapsing Giant Cell Arteritis NCT04633447 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.