Multicenter Study in Postmenopausal Women With Osteoporosis, ALVOBOND
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-10-28, after 2022-08-23 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 53.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: women withsubject ispostmenopausalpriorvitamin
Phrases that lowered it: immunogenicitythe efficacymoderatepharmacokinetichip -
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 168845 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 7 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 168845 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 9567 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 53.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 13.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- denosumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Comparison of Efficacy, Pharmacodynamics, Safety, and Immunogenicity Between Bmab 1000 and Prolia® in Postmenopausal Women With Osteoporosis NCT05345691 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Comparative Efficacy and Safety Study of RGB-14-P and Prolia® in Women With Postmenopausal Osteoporosis NCT05087030 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- A Study to Compare Efficacy, PK, PD, Safety and IMM of MB09 to Prolia® [EU-sourced] in Postmenopausal Osteoporosis. NCT05338086 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- AVT03 With Prolia in Healthy Male Subjects NCT05126784 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- A Study to Compare SB16 (Proposed Denosumab Biosimilar) to Prolia® in Postmenopausal Women With Osteoporosis NCT04664959 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.