Eucalyptus Oil as Adjuvant Therapy for Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patienthearttherapypatientstumor
  Phrases that lowered it: clinicalproduct19evaluate theto evaluate
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 59 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Enzalutamide Treatment in COVID-19 NCT04475601 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• The Phase 2 Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Clevudine in Patients With Moderate COVID-19 NCT04347915 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of Montelukast in Mild-moderate Respiratory Symptoms in Patients With Long-COVID-19: NCT04695704 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
• Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of an Immunomodulatory Therapy for the Treatment of Patients With Moderate to Severe COVID-19 Infection NCT04374032 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of C19-IG 20% in SARS-CoV-2 Infected Asymptomatic Ambulatory Outpatients NCT04847141 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.