The CHAMP-study: The CHemopreventive Effect of Lithium in Familial AdenoMatous Polyposis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-09-30, after 2022-06-02 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 41 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientscellstherapycolorectalcancer
Phrases that lowered it: effectparticipantuse of18 anddrug -
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 35 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 35 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 107 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 41 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 18580 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1053 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 82.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- lithium carbonate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Clinical Trial of COX and EGFR Inhibition in Familial Polyposis Patients NCT01187901 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- A Study of Guselkumab in Participants With Familial Adenomatous Polyposis NCT03649971 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- The Chemopreventive Effect of Metformin in Patients With Familial Adenomatous Polyposis: Double Blinded Randomized Controlled Study NCT01725490 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Prevention of Progression of Duodenal Adenomas in Patients With Familial Adenomatous Polyposis NCT00808743 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- Trial of Eflornithine Plus Sulindac in Patients With Familial Adenomatous Polyposis (FAP) NCT01483144 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.