Nesvategrast (OTT166) in Diabetic Retinopathy (DR)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: study eyediabeticmmhgpriorrandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: participantevaluate theophthalmicsolutionparticipants
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study Assessing Efficacy and Safety of OC-10X in the Treatment of PDR NCT02735369 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• Sirolimus to Treat Diabetic Macular Edema NCT00711490 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study to Evaluate Two Doses of Oral DMI-5207 in Adult Subjects With Diabetic Macular Edema NCT02002403 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Efficacy Study of Oral Danazol (a Previously Approved Drug) in the Treatment of Diabetic Macular Edema. NCT01821677 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Efficacy & Safety Trial of Intravitreal Injections Combined With PRP for CSME Secondary to Diabetes Mellitus (DAVE) NCT01552408 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.